The October WASDE raised world 2017/18 wheat ending stocks by 3% to a record 268.1 million tonnes. The increase reflects higher forecasts for Russia, which rose to a record 82 million tonnes, the EU, raised 2.2 million tonnes to 151 million tonnes, and India, partly offset by lower Australian output.
Larger Russian and EU crops add export supply and pressure world wheat prices. Cheaper wheat can substitute for corn in feed rations.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.