
The Argentine soybean harvest is winding down with over 90% harvested, and one analyst raised the production estimate to nearly 50 million tonnes. Late-planted soybeans yielded better than expected, offsetting much of the losses from early June flooding in northern Buenos Aires.
A near-50 million tonne Argentine crop confirms ample soybean and meal supplies for export, a modestly bearish factor for soy complex prices during the export season.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.