USDA's Oct. 24 GAIN report projects Argentina's 2018-19 corn crop at 41.5 million tonnes, about 500,000 tonnes higher than previously estimated and well above the drought-hit 32 million tonnes of 2017-18.
Corn exports are forecast at 26 million tonnes, 1 million lower than before. Brokers expect shipments to slow from November to February as they face strong U.S. competition.
A larger Argentine corn crop with lower exports adds supply but reduces export competition with the US pricing in the near term. Slower Argentine shipments from November to February could support US corn export demand.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.