
The International Grains Council forecasts world grain output to fall about 3% in the coming crop year after the record 2016 harvest pushed corn and wheat prices lower. High opening stocks are expected to almost offset the production decline and keep markets well supplied.
A smaller crop year would tighten supply at the margin, but elevated carryin stocks cap price upside for feed grains and wheat buyers.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.