
Brazil's 2024/25 soybean planting start date has been moved forward 7-10 days to September 7 in Mato Grosso and September 1 in Parana, after the Minister of Agriculture approved a request from farmers. Earlier planting could allow earlier harvest and exports and earlier safrinha corn planting.
Forecasts point to La Nina conditions, typically favorable for central Brazil.
An earlier soybean harvest and export start, plus potentially higher safrinha yields, add to future Brazilian supply and could weigh on soybean and meal prices later in the season.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.