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Universidad Austral researcher Dante Romano says global corn and soybean stocks are rising and local harvests are good, pushing local prices to levels where corn and soybean production is no longer profitable. He estimates that proposed soybean product export tax increases would cut foreign currency earnings by US$2 billion.
Rising global stocks are bearish for corn and soybean prices, while the proposed export tax increase on soy products would reduce Argentine export volumes and supply pressure on world soymeal and soyoil markets.
austral.edu.arJan 18, 2024After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, SBM moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 841 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
