
Russia suspended its floating export duty on wheat, barley and corn through the end of 2026 while Ukrainian attacks disrupt shipments through the Black and Azov seas. Russia will keep grain export duties at zero until December 31, and the sunflower oil duty is frozen at August levels.
Zero export duties lower the cost of Russian grain for exporters, which can support Russian sales and cap world price gains in wheat, barley and corn.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.