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March soybean meal gapped lower on January 23 after Argentina announced export tax cuts effective January 27 through June. The article notes Argentina's 2024/25 soybean crop forecast at 52.0 million tons by USDA and 49.6 million by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
Persistent heat and dryness are hurting summer crops.
Expected farmer selling from Argentina's tax cut adds supply to soymeal, while drought-linked yield risk limits downside, so prices are pulled in both directions.
walshtrading.comSteve DavisJan 27, 2025After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
