Argentina will lower its soybean export tariff starting in 2018. Current soybean meal prices are not being pushed higher by the weaker dollar.
A lower export duty could increase Argentine export competitiveness and meal and bean flows from 2018, which is bearish for soybean meal prices over time.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.