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SAFRAS & Mercado says Argentina's new government devalued the peso and changed exchange rate policy, making Argentine soymeal and soyoil cheaper on world markets. The analysts expect Argentine growers to sell stored beans, and the Chicago Board of Trade has already declined in response.
A cheaper Argentine peso boosts Argentina's export competitiveness, pressuring soymeal and soyoil prices in Chicago and regional Brazilian premiums, and export tax cuts could add further downside.
ukragroconsult.comDec 21, 2023After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
