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Argentine soybean sales accelerated after a 'soybean dollar' program started September 5, with about 1.5 million tons sold September 1-12 versus 240,000 tons in the last week of August. The program lets crushers exchange a quarter of receipts at the open rate, and the 2022/23 drought left crushers running near 50% capacity, forcing heavy imports from Paraguay and Brazil.
Faster farmer selling adds near-term Argentine supply to export markets, which is bearish for soybeans and meal, while crusher import dependence supports demand for Brazilian and Paraguayan beans.
ukragroconsult.comSep 20, 2023After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
