Soybean futures and products on the Chicago Board of Trade are undergoing modest profit-taking after a strong late-summer rally, with US September 1 inventories running about 3% below last year and Chinese demand continuing to underpin prices across the complex.
US corn and wheat futures recovered from multi-week lows on October 1, 2026, while soybeans fell across the complex. Key market drivers included a record-high US winter wheat acre abandonment rate, a sharp cut to Russia's wheat export forecast, surging US soybean export commitments led by China, and record combined biodiesel and renewable diesel production in July.
Ukrainian corn FOB and FCA prices at Odesa edged lower on 24 September 2026 as active Black Sea export flows kept seller competition intense, while French FOB corn firmed and German EXW values held broadly steady. CMB News expects mostly stable to mildly softer indications across Brazil, Germany and Ukraine over the next three days.
U.S. grain futures on September 25, 2026 finished near session highs after early selling pressure gave way to a recovery driven by a weaker dollar and trade-deal optimism. December corn edged up fractionally, November soybeans posted weekly gains on news of a U.S.-China trade subset agreement, while wheat futures ended the week lower amid a sustained price downtrend. Persistent Midwest rains are delaying harvest and tightening soybean supplies at processors.
US on-highway diesel hit an all-time record of $6.53 per gallon in the week of 21 September 2026, coinciding with the harvest season. The Trump administration is weighing a range of targeted measures — including dyed-diesel distribution, state tax relief and voluntary refiner concessions — after setting aside a 90-day export ban that energy officials and industry warned would backfire. USDA projects 2026 farm fuel and oil spending at $21.6 billion, up 28.8% from 2025.
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all closed lower on 23 September 2026, pressured by weak ethanol output, lower EU and UK crop forecasts from Coceral, ongoing Black Sea military strikes, and shifting South American production outlooks, according to an ADM Investor Services market commentary.
Philippine corn production is projected to fall 14.4% to 2.08 million tonnes following typhoon damage, with El Niño conditions forecast to intensify into late 2026. The supply squeeze is accelerating feed-industry interest in drought-tolerant millet as a partial corn substitute, while European and Black Sea export prices remain broadly stable.
Argentina's 2026/27 wheat output is forecast to fall sharply from the previous season's record, while war-related disruptions continue to constrain Black Sea exports. Together, the two developments are tightening global high-quality wheat availability and pushing Chicago futures to a multi-year high, raising import costs for buyers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
German feed corn prices remain steady at 0.295 EUR/kg EXW Drentwede amid a drought-reduced domestic harvest, while Ukrainian export corn at Odesa has softened to 0.157–0.159 EUR/kg on CPT and FOB terms, widening the spread between the two origins and keeping EU feed buyers well supplied from Black Sea sources despite ongoing logistics risks.
Chicago December wheat futures settled lower on September 21, 2026, but a combination of solid US export sales and persistent Black Sea supply disruption risks is preventing a deeper price correction, according to CMB News.
International corn markets are navigating a tug-of-war between a projected record 66 million tonne Argentine maize harvest for 2026/27 and near-term European Union supply tightness driven by Ukrainian logistics bottlenecks. CBOT futures softened on profit-taking ahead of a U.S.–China summit, while Euronext corn held firm on constrained Black Sea inflows and elevated EU import demand.
Grain futures rose overnight on 21 September 2026 as China's state-owned firms purchased at least 260,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans days before a presidential summit in Washington, while U.S. and Chinese officials began preparatory trade talks in New York. Soybean meal, corn and wheat futures all gained, though progress on China's broader $17 billion annual farm-goods commitment remains limited.