Argentina's 2026/27 wheat output is forecast to fall sharply from the previous season's record, while war-related disruptions continue to constrain Black Sea exports. Together, the two developments are tightening global high-quality wheat availability and pushing Chicago futures to a multi-year high, raising import costs for buyers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
German feed corn prices remain steady at 0.295 EUR/kg EXW Drentwede amid a drought-reduced domestic harvest, while Ukrainian export corn at Odesa has softened to 0.157–0.159 EUR/kg on CPT and FOB terms, widening the spread between the two origins and keeping EU feed buyers well supplied from Black Sea sources despite ongoing logistics risks.
Chicago December wheat futures settled lower on September 21, 2026, but a combination of solid US export sales and persistent Black Sea supply disruption risks is preventing a deeper price correction, according to CMB News.
International corn markets are navigating a tug-of-war between a projected record 66 million tonne Argentine maize harvest for 2026/27 and near-term European Union supply tightness driven by Ukrainian logistics bottlenecks. CBOT futures softened on profit-taking ahead of a U.S.–China summit, while Euronext corn held firm on constrained Black Sea inflows and elevated EU import demand.
Forecast rainfall across the central and southern Plains is expected to improve seedbed conditions for 2027 hard red winter wheat planting, while the Corn Belt faces a divided harvest picture: drier conditions offer eastern growers a harvest window, but renewed moisture across Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota threatens further delays in the west.
Ongoing shipping disruptions in the Black Sea and Red Sea are compelling wheat importers across Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa to source from more expensive origins such as the United States, Baltic states, Romania, Argentina, India, and Australia. Higher war-risk insurance premiums and freight costs are keeping physical wheat prices structurally elevated even as futures benchmarks have eased slightly from late-August highs, according to CMB News.
MDEX palm oil futures posted modest gains on 23 September 2026, with the nearby October 2026 contract settling at MYR 4,640 per tonne. A gently upward-sloping forward curve reflects competing pressures: elevated Malaysian inventories and soft exports on the bearish side, against Indonesia's imminent B50 biodiesel mandate and drier-than-normal regional weather on the supportive side.
South African SAFEX sunflower seed futures softened in late September 2026 as seasonal harvest pressure weighs on local prices, while Black Sea seed and crude oil values remain underpinned by ongoing Ukrainian port disruptions and a tightening global vegetable oil balance, according to CMB News.
The Philippine Department of Agriculture is assessing millet as an alternative feed ingredient to corn, prompted by El Niño-related drought risks and a drive to lower livestock production costs, following Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr.'s visit to India where the crop is widely used.
CBOT soybean futures held firm on 21 September 2026, with the November 2026 contract trading around 1,310 US-cent/bu, supported by record-pace U.S. export sales and continued Chinese buying, even as managed-money funds began reducing historically elevated net long positions and crude oil weakness capped gains in soybean oil.
India's 2026 southwest monsoon has fallen roughly 15% below normal, reducing kharif maize sowings by around 2.2% and raising domestic supply concerns. Meanwhile, Ukrainian and EU corn prices have eased, keeping global feed grain markets broadly soft despite the weather-driven uncertainty in South Asia.
China's state grain reserve operator Sinograin has resumed large-scale soybean auctions, including a tranche of around 543,000 tonnes of 2023–2025 crop beans, in a move analysts say is designed to rotate aging stocks and free silo capacity ahead of potential fresh US arrivals. With China estimated to be roughly halfway toward a 25 MMT US soybean purchase commitment, market participants are closely watching upcoming high-level US–China talks for any signal on tariff relief, which could quickly accelerate buying and tighten US export capacity.