Strong U.S. Soybean Exports and Chinese Demand Keep CBOT Futures Firm Despite Fund Long Trimming

CBOT soybean futures opened the week on a firm note on 21 September 2026, underpinned by an exceptionally strong U.S. export programme and persistent Chinese demand, even as speculative funds trimmed near-record net long positions and declining crude oil prices weighed on the soybean oil complex.

Futures Prices

According to CMB News, the November 2026 CBOT soybean contract was trading at approximately 1,310.25 US-cent/bu, up 6.75 cents on the day, while the January 2027 contract stood at 1,326.75 US-cent/bu. The front October 2026 soybean meal contract was quoted at 357.70 USD/short ton, retaining a weekly gain despite a recent correction. Soybean oil was marginally weaker, with the October 2026 contract at 67.66 US-cent/lb.

The source noted that the December 2026 meal contract had recently fallen by 12.70 USD/short ton on profit-taking before stabilising, while still recording a weekly gain.

Export Demand and Chinese Buying

The primary driver of current market strength is the pace of U.S. new-crop export commitments. CMB News reported that 2026/27 export sales already total 20.63 million tonnes, described as "more than double last year's level at the same point," covering approximately 45% of the USDA's full-season export projection — well above the five-year average completion rate of 36%. The USDA separately reported an additional 111,000-tonne sale of U.S. soybeans to China, underscoring continued Chinese import appetite.

USDA Supply Projections

On the supply side, the USDA marginally raised its projected U.S. 2026/27 soybean yield to 52.8 bu/acre and lifted its export forecast to 1.69 billion bushels. Global oilseed supply was described as "comfortable," with higher output projections for rapeseed and sunflowerseed, though soybeans were said to retain a competitive edge in feed and crush margins. Chinese domestic Dalian No. 1 soybean futures fell approximately 1.4–1.6% last week, suggesting some near-term relief on the local balance, though the source noted this was not sufficient to derail Chinese import demand.

Speculative Positioning

Managed-money funds remained heavily positioned on the long side but began scaling back. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders data, dated 15 September 2026 and published 18 September 2026, showed managed money holding a net long of approximately 244,710 contracts in CBOT soybeans — only slightly reduced from a record high the prior week. CMB News described this net length as sitting "in the extreme upper percentiles of the last year's range" and representing roughly 22% of open interest, characterising the market as "crowded on the long side." The source cautioned that such positioning leaves the market "vulnerable to bouts of volatility" should export, weather or macro conditions disappoint.

Physical Market Prices by Origin

Physical soybean prices in EUR showed divergence by origin. FOB New Delhi (India) sortex clean soybeans were quoted at 0.87 EUR/kg (unchanged), FOB Washington D.C. (U.S.) No. 2 soybeans at 0.62 EUR/kg (unchanged), and FOB Beijing (China) yellow soybeans at 0.74 EUR/kg with organic yellow beans at 0.81 EUR/kg, both stable. Ukrainian soybeans FOB Odesa eased to 0.34 EUR/kg from 0.348 EUR/kg, while GMO-free CPT Odesa firmed slightly to 0.383 EUR/kg from 0.378 EUR/kg. The source attributed the divergence to tight farmer selling supporting Western origins and ongoing regional discounting for Black Sea supply.

Weather Outlook

In the U.S. Midwest, CMB News reported a slight easing of drought classifications, with D1 and D2 coverage retreating compared with the prior week and no major expansion of severe drought, supporting a smooth start to soybean harvest. In Brazil, forecasters cited by the source expect El Niño to provide adequate soil moisture across central states once the sanitary planting window closes in mid-September, enabling an early start to 2026/27 soybean sowing, though the same weather pattern carries a risk of an earlier-than-normal end to the wet season.