Argentina's 2026/27 wheat output is forecast to fall sharply from the previous season's record, while war-related disruptions continue to constrain Black Sea exports. Together, the two developments are tightening global high-quality wheat availability and pushing Chicago futures to a multi-year high, raising import costs for buyers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
German feed corn prices remain steady at 0.295 EUR/kg EXW Drentwede amid a drought-reduced domestic harvest, while Ukrainian export corn at Odesa has softened to 0.157–0.159 EUR/kg on CPT and FOB terms, widening the spread between the two origins and keeping EU feed buyers well supplied from Black Sea sources despite ongoing logistics risks.
Pakistan's Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has tendered for 750,000 tonnes of 2026-crop milling wheat on CFR Karachi/Gwadar terms at around USD 320–325 per tonne, but the high landed cost of imports — compounded by freight, port charges, and currency weakness — is expected to support rather than ease domestic wheat prices. Global benchmark prices from Ukraine, the EU, and the US have softened modestly in September, but analysts note Pakistan's firmness is driven by internal cost and currency dynamics rather than global supply tightness.
Chicago December wheat futures settled lower on September 21, 2026, but a combination of solid US export sales and persistent Black Sea supply disruption risks is preventing a deeper price correction, according to CMB News.
International corn markets are navigating a tug-of-war between a projected record 66 million tonne Argentine maize harvest for 2026/27 and near-term European Union supply tightness driven by Ukrainian logistics bottlenecks. CBOT futures softened on profit-taking ahead of a U.S.–China summit, while Euronext corn held firm on constrained Black Sea inflows and elevated EU import demand.
South African SAFEX sunflower seed futures softened in late September 2026 as seasonal harvest pressure weighs on local prices, while Black Sea seed and crude oil values remain underpinned by ongoing Ukrainian port disruptions and a tightening global vegetable oil balance, according to CMB News.
Grain futures rose overnight on 21 September 2026 as China's state-owned firms purchased at least 260,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans days before a presidential summit in Washington, while U.S. and Chinese officials began preparatory trade talks in New York. Soybean meal, corn and wheat futures all gained, though progress on China's broader $17 billion annual farm-goods commitment remains limited.
Soybean prices are holding broadly steady, supported by strong Asian crushing margins and firm Chinese feed demand, even as Ukrainian FOB values ease and CBOT futures consolidate ahead of the US harvest. Wilmar International's H1 2026 results point to a meaningful uplift in crushing volumes and processing profits, while Brazilian planting begins under El Niño-influenced conditions.
Argentina's bumper 2025/26 corn harvest of roughly 71.7 million tonnes is driving record export volumes to North Africa, displacing Ukrainian and EU supplies constrained by Black Sea disruptions and drought. Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria have all sharply increased purchases from Argentina in the first seven months of 2026, while Brazil's expanding ethanol sector is further tightening global export availability.
German feed rye EXW prices have firmed modestly in northern regions, while Ukrainian rye offered FOB Odesa has ticked up slightly, as ample EU grain supply and persistent Black Sea risk premia shape a cautious but balanced rye market heading into late September 2026.
CBOT soybean futures fell for the week ending 18 September 2026, weighed down by the onset of U.S. harvest and softness in vegetable oil markets, while firm soymeal prices, robust Chinese export demand, and harvest-delaying Midwest rains capped the downside. Regional FOB prices showed a mixed picture, with Ukrainian standard soybeans easing and GMO-free values edging higher.
Ukrainian soybean prices at Odesa are softening modestly as alternative Black Sea export routes inch toward greater capacity, now handling around 40% of normal agricultural volumes, while seasonal harvest pressure adds fresh supply into a still-constrained logistics system.