Argentina's Record Corn Exports Reshape North African Feed Demand
Argentina's bumper 2025/26 corn harvest of roughly 71.7 million tonnes is driving record export volumes to North Africa, displacing Ukrainian and EU supplies constrained by Black Sea disruptions and drought. Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria have all sharply increased purchases from Argentina in the first seven months of 2026, while Brazil's expanding ethanol sector is further tightening global export availability.
Argentina's record corn crop is fundamentally redirecting global trade flows, with North African buyers pivoting toward South American supplies as Ukrainian exports remain disrupted and European yields suffer severe drought damage, according to a market analysis published by CMB News on 18 September 2026.
Argentina's 2025/26 harvest reached approximately 71.7 million tonnes, which CMB News described as "about 20% above the previous record." August–September corn exports from Argentina are expected to reach around 10 million tonnes, compared with a typical 3 million tonnes for the same period, the report stated.
The shift in trade flows is most visible in North Africa. Argentine corn shipments to the region rose around 45% to 6.5 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2026, according to CMB News. Country-level data cited in the report showed Morocco's purchases up approximately 133% to 1.55 million tonnes, Egypt up 48% to 2.4 million tonnes, and Algeria up 10% to 2.3 million tonnes over the same period.
CMB News attributed the demand shift to two concurrent supply-side pressures. Ukraine's export capacity remains limited by what the report described as "Black Sea disruptions and, at times, low Danube water levels, which limit the throughput of alternative river routes and keep logistical costs volatile." In Europe, a summer of extreme heat and drought has curtailed grain maize yields across western and central regions, with France and Germany identified as particularly affected markets. CMB News noted that "EU analyses point to significantly lower summer-crop yields," with "only limited relief expected from cooler, wetter conditions arriving too late to reverse yield losses."
A third structural factor is also reshaping global corn trade. Brazil's expanding corn ethanol industry is absorbing a growing share of domestic production, gradually reducing that country's export availability. CMB News described "structural growth in corn-based biofuels, coupled with recent investment in new plants and infrastructure" as a force "gradually reducing the country's export availability and shifting part of global import demand towards Argentina and the Black Sea."
On the price side, the report presented a mixed but broadly firm picture across key corridors. Ukrainian yellow feed corn ex Odesa was quoted at EUR 0.18/kg FCA and EUR 0.159/kg FOB. French FOB Paris corn was indicated at EUR 0.25/kg, while German feed corn traded at approximately EUR 0.30/kg EXW Drentwede. CMB News attributed the French and German premiums over Black Sea and Argentine origins to tight local supply caused by drought-driven production losses.
North African feed demand is underpinned by poultry and livestock sectors, which CMB News said "have limited flexibility to substitute away from corn in the short run." The report noted that North African buyers face a medium-term consideration: while Argentine supply is currently abundant, increased concentration of purchases from a single origin raises dependence on Argentine logistics and policy stability.
The CMB News analysis was published on 18 September 2026 and is based on CMB News editorial desk reporting.
Prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by the editorial team.
