Asian Crushing Margins Underpin Soybean Prices as Ukrainian FOB Values Soften

Global soybean prices are maintaining a broadly stable footing as robust crushing margins in Asia and recovering Chinese feed demand offset softer export values from the Black Sea and a largely directionless CBOT futures market entering the 2026 US harvest period, according to CMB News analysis published on 18 September 2026.

Asian Crushing Activity Provides Demand Floor

Wilmar International's H1 2026 financial results are cited by CMB News as a key demand indicator for the soybean complex. The Singapore-listed integrated agribusiness reported that stronger Chinese feed demand boosted crushing activity, lifting oilseeds and grains sales volumes by 6.1% to 14.9 million tonnes and revenues by 16% to $5.58 billion. The group's feed and industrial products division recorded a pre-tax profit increase of 54.9% to $591 million, which CMB News interprets as reflecting improved processing margins across soy and tropical oils.

At the group level, Wilmar posted a 9.9% year-on-year rise in core net profit to $641.5 million and a 12.8% increase in pre-tax profit to $1.06 billion, both of which the source explicitly links to higher soybean crushing volumes and stronger refining margins, particularly in China's feed sector.

CMB News notes that Chinese soybean meal prices and crusher profitability showed some volatility during the period, with margins remaining generally positive through early September before coming under pressure in mid-month as meal prices corrected. The source observes that even if meal prices weaken further, resilient oil demand and favourable refinery margins in tropical oils help maintain an underlying bid for soybeans from integrated processors.

Regional Price Picture: Ukraine Softer, US and China Stable

Regional price indications published by CMB News show a divergence between origins. Ukrainian FOB Odesa soybeans were quoted at EUR 0.34/kg as of 17 September 2026, down from EUR 0.348/kg previously. US FOB No. 2 soybeans held at EUR 0.62/kg unchanged as of the same date. Chinese FOB Beijing yellow soybeans were steady at EUR 0.74/kg, and Chinese organic yellow soybeans were unchanged at EUR 0.81/kg, both as of 16 September 2026. Ukrainian GMO-free soybeans on CPT terms were quoted at EUR 0.378/kg, up from EUR 0.37/kg, with that price last updated on 11 September 2026.

CBOT November 2026 soybean futures were described as "broadly flat into the weekend," trading around the low-13s USD/bushel with a very shallow carry into early 2027, which CMB News characterises as signalling balanced nearby supply and demand.

CMB News attributes the relative weakness in Black Sea values to intense export competition and logistics constraints at Ukrainian ports.

Supply Side: US Harvest Approaching, Brazil Planting Begins

On the supply side, CMB News reports that US crop conditions in major producing states such as Illinois and across the broader Midwest are generally described as good, with fields moving towards maturity under mostly favourable late-season weather, though some drought pockets exist that are not currently considered severe enough to materially alter the national supply outlook.

In Brazil, the 2026/27 soybean planting season is just beginning. CMB News notes that El Niño conditions are expected to support an early, well-moistened planting window in the Center-West region but may bring an earlier-than-normal end to seasonal rains later in the growing season, raising yield risk for soybeans and subsequent safrinha maize. The source describes this combination of near-term comfort and medium-term uncertainty as likely to keep risk premiums modest but present in forward soybean pricing.

Palm Oil Tightness Supports Broader Oilseed Complex

CMB News also flags that crude palm oil output in Indonesia slipped 4% to approximately 716,000 tonnes, which Wilmar attributed to tighter palm availability. The source says this supports the broader oilseed complex and limits downside for soybean oil and, by extension, for whole bean prices despite regional softness.

Outlook

CMB News's one-to-two week trading outlook anticipates a largely sideways to slightly firm tone in international soybeans, with strong Asian crushing demand and tighter palm oil supplies seen offsetting harvest-related pressure from the US. The source identifies Brazilian planting progress and any shifts in Chinese meal demand or crush margins as the key risk factors to monitor.