Pakistan Wheat Imports: High CFR Costs Keep Domestic Prices Firm Despite TCP Tender

Pakistan's domestic wheat market is expected to remain firm in the near term despite the approval of large-scale imports, as the high cost of sourcing overseas grain limits the downside for local prices, according to CMB News.

The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has sought 750,000 tonnes of milling wheat from the 2026 crop on CFR Karachi and/or Gwadar terms, with imported wheat currently discussed at around USD 320–325 per tonne CFR, with some tender bids reported even higher. Beyond the base CFR price, insurance, port dues, stevedoring, storage, fumigation, financing costs, and upcountry freight all add to the final rupee cost paid by millers, CMB News reported.

Pakistan's annual wheat consumption stands at around 31 million tonnes, and recent domestic harvests have underperformed, creating a structural supply gap that makes imports essential to stabilise flour availability, the report noted.

While the approved import programme reduces the near-term risk of shortages, CMB News said a broad-based easing of domestic wheat and flour prices appears unlikely given the current cost structure. "Unless the government scales up volumes significantly beyond the 750,000‑tonne programme (and any follow-on tendering), domestic markets are more likely to transition from acute tightness to a still-firm but better supplied equilibrium," the report stated.

Global export prices have softened modestly. Ukrainian wheat grade 2 CPT Odesa was quoted at EUR 0.161/kg and feed wheat at EUR 0.144/kg, while Ukrainian FOB Odesa prices for 10.5–12.5% protein wheat have slipped from EUR 0.155–0.158/kg earlier in September to around EUR 0.136–0.138/kg more recently, according to CMB News. German feed wheat EXW Drentwede was indicated at EUR 0.242/kg, fluctuating in a narrow band around EUR 0.233–0.245/kg. French 11.0% protein wheat FOB Paris was cited at EUR 0.31/kg, easing from EUR 0.34/kg, and US 11.5% wheat FOB (CBOT-linked) at EUR 0.22/kg.

CMB News characterised this softness in global prices as providing "some relief versus the peaks of previous seasons" but said it was "being largely offset in Pakistan by non‑commodity costs and fiscal constraints," including local currency weakness and elevated interest rates.

Looking ahead, CMB News said the arrival of the first TCP cargoes should improve physical availability and may cap further sharp domestic price spikes, particularly in urban consumption centres. However, the report added that any additional tenders beyond the initial 750,000-tonne programme, if conducted under similar CFR conditions, "would also reinforce a high-cost price floor."

For global exporters, the report described Pakistan as "an attractive but cost‑sensitive outlet," with Black Sea and EU origins competitively positioned in CFR terms, but noted that political and logistical risk premia and strict quality requirements for 2026-crop wheat would continue to shape actual shipment flows.