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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recorded El Niño strengthening on 12 November, with Niño-3.4 at 2.5 °C above average. It cut the chance of an event stronger than any since 1950 to about 60%, down from 83% a month earlier, and explained the difference from the RONI index that NOAA adopted in February 2026.
A lower probability of an extreme event reduces the likelihood of the most severe South American and Asian crop losses, easing some weather-driven price premium, though El Niño still threatens key crops.
wikifarmer.comNov 13, 2026After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
