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New Zealand's NIWA says there is a more than 50% chance of El Nino returning from August to October, with some models forecasting a moderate or stronger event. Sea temperatures off South America have warmed.
A possible strong El Nino would be a notable global weather driver for 2017 crops, though New Zealand's pasture and feed impacts are local and small for world feed prices.
rnz.co.nzTe Reo Irirangi o AotearoaMar 1, 2017After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
