
The WMO reports that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures returned to neutral ENSO levels in July after a borderline-to-weak El Niño since October 2018. Models give about a 60% chance of neutral conditions for September-November 2019, with El Niño at about 30% and La Niña at 10%.
A neutral ENSO outlook removes a major driver of Southern Hemisphere and global crop-weather risk, which is generally bearish for weather-premium grain and meal prices. Rising El Niño odds into 2020 would be a modest supportive factor for later-season contracts.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.