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ProAg's August 9 El Niño update says the 2019 El Niño has officially ended, with the July Niño3.4 index at 0.4°C falling below the 0.5°C threshold for the first time since last September. Forecasters put ENSO-neutral at 50-55% likelihood through the Northern Hemisphere winter, and trade winds are rebounding toward average.
The end of El Niño reduces the risk of weather-driven supply shocks in major exporting regions, which is generally bearish for grain and oilseed prices. Forecasters caution that neutral conditions still allow large weather swings.
proag.comAug 9, 2019After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
