Loading…
The IRI's August 2019 quick look states that the weak 2018-19 El Niño has ended, with Pacific sea surface temperatures cooling to neutral in July. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, with slightly higher odds of El Niño than La Niña, and the official CPC/IRI outlook no longer carries an El Niño advisory.
The end of El Niño reduces the likelihood of a major weather shock to global crops over the coming season, which eases supply-risk premiums. The slight tilt toward El Niño later is a minor offset for the market.
iri.columbia.eduAug 21, 2019iri.columbia.eduAug 21, 2019iri.columbia.eduAug 19, 2019After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
