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The IRI monthly ENSO summary says east-central Pacific sea surface temperatures were near weak El Niño thresholds in October and early November, but atmospheric patterns stayed neutral. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral conditions through winter and spring, with slightly higher odds of El Niño than La Niña.
Neutral ENSO removes a strong seasonal weather signal, so feed buyers should expect winter and spring supply risk to hinge on other patterns rather than a predictable El Niño or La Niña effect on South American or Southeast Asian crops.
iri.columbia.eduNov 19, 2019After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
