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The IRI May Quick Look reports that east-central Pacific sea surface temperatures were near average in mid-May. Most models favor neutral conditions into summer, becoming below average but not necessarily La Niña by late summer and fall.
Neutral ENSO through summer lowers the near-term risk of major weather shocks to Northern Hemisphere crops, so it offers limited immediate price support for feed grains.
iri.columbia.eduMay 19, 2020After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
