Loading…
The IRI August Quick Look reports El Niño is intensifying, with the July Niño 3.4 monthly value at +2.03 °C and the weekly value reaching +2.7 °C in mid-August. It indicates the event is evolving toward a very strong strength.
Rapidly rising Niño 3.4 readings point to growing odds of severe weather disruption to crops and palm oil, supporting firmer ag prices.
iri.columbia.eduAug 19, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
