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The IRI June 2019 ENSO Quick Look reports that tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures held at weak El Niño levels through May and early June. The official CPC/IRI outlook gives a 66% chance El Niño continues through June-August, falling to 50-55% through fall and winter.
A persisting El Niño raises the risk of drought in Australia, India and Southeast Asia and can shift rainfall in the Americas, tightening oilseed and grain supplies and supporting feed prices.
iri.columbia.eduJun 19, 2019After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
