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The IRI October 2017 Quick Look says the tropical Pacific is ENSO-neutral but near the threshold for weak La Niña, with the collection of models favoring weak La Niña in the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook carries a La Niña Watch.
Models pointing to a weak La Niña during fall and winter keep a modest weather risk premium in the market for northern and southern hemisphere crops. The effect on feed grain prices is likely limited unless the event strengthens.
iri.columbia.eduOct 19, 2017After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
