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The IRI October 2021 Quick Look states that central-eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are 0.8°C below average, consistent with La Niña, and that a La Niña Advisory is in place. Models predict cooling through winter and a return to neutral by spring.
Models pointing to a La Niña through early 2022 add weather risk premium to South American soybean and corn crops, a factor for feed input costs.
iri.columbia.eduOct 19, 2021After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
