The IRI's July 2022 Quick Look says La Niña conditions remain in place, though weakened, with a La Niña Advisory still active. Model forecasts show a 68% chance of La Niña during August-October, with ENSO-neutral most likely by January-March 2023.
Persistent La Niña signals ongoing risk to South American crops and US yields, a modest supportive factor for grain and oilseed prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.