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The IRI February 2018 ENSO Quick Look reports that in mid-February the tropical Pacific showed weak to moderate La Niña conditions. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for La Niña to continue through early spring, with a likely return to neutral around mid-spring.
Persistent La Niña raises the risk of dryness in Argentina and southern US and Plains, which supports soybean, corn and wheat prices through the spring planting window.
iri.columbia.eduFeb 19, 2018After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
