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The IRI's February 2019 ENSO update says tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures cooled to borderline El Niño levels in January and early February, while subsurface waters stayed warmer than average. Atmospheric El Niño patterns developed in late January and February.
The official CPC/IRI outlook carries an El Niño advisory, with a 65% chance of El Niño during Feb-Apr falling to 50% for Apr-Jun.
El Niño raises the risk of drought in parts of Asia, Australia and Southern Africa and of uneven rain in South America, which can tighten supplies of grains and oilseeds. Traders may price in a higher weather premium if the event strengthens.
iri.columbia.eduFeb 19, 2019After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
