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NOAA's Climate.gov issued an El Niño Watch, saying there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions in the May–July period. The March Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature was 0.2°C below average, which is neutral, and the atmosphere was near neutral.
A formal El Niño Watch raises odds of drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and parts of South America, which can support grain and oilseed prices through weather risk premium.
climate.govNOAA (.gov)May 1, 2023After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
