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NOAA's Climate.gov July 2020 ENSO update says the tropical Pacific remains ENSO-neutral through summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña developing in fall and lasting through winter. NOAA issued a La Niña Watch, meaning forecasts favor La Niña within six months.
A possible La Niña raises the risk of drier conditions in parts of South America and wetter conditions in Southeast Asia, which can affect soybean, corn and palm oil supply later in the year and support prices.
climate.govEmily BeckerAug 1, 2020After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
