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NOAA Climate.gov's July update says La Niña remains in force despite some warming, with about a 60% chance through summer rising to about 66% by October-December 2022. El Niño odds are only in the low single digits.
A continued La Niña increases the risk of drought in Argentina and southern Brazil and of heat in the US Corn Belt, supporting grain and meal prices.
content-drupal.climate.govEmily BeckerJul 14, 2022After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
