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NOAA's January 2021 update says there is a 95% chance La Niña continues through winter and a 55% chance the tropical Pacific shifts to neutral by spring. Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures were 1.2°C below the 1986-2015 average in December 2020, and the event is asymmetric compared with past La Niñas of similar strength.
La Niña raises the risk of dry conditions across South America and the US Plains in 2021, which can cut crop supplies and support feed grain and oilseed prices. The outlook beyond spring remains uncertain.
climate.govEmily BeckerJan 14, 2021After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
