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NOAA's May ENSO update says El Niño has weakened substantially and a transition to neutral conditions is imminent. It gives a 69% chance La Niña develops by July–September, with near 50-50 odds by June–August.
A shift from El Niño toward La Niña raises the risk of drought in the Americas, which can cut yields for corn, soybeans and wheat and tighten feed supplies. Markets may price in weather risk ahead of the season.
climate.govEmily BeckerJun 1, 2024After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
