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NOAA's May 2023 ENSO update said Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed back above average, and an El Niño Watch remains in place. El Niño conditions are likely to develop within a couple of months and persist into winter with a greater than 90% chance.
Confirmation of a likely El Niño raises the odds of dryness in Australia, Southeast Asia, India and parts of South America, which could cut crop output and lift feed grain and oilseed prices.
climate.govNat JohnsonJun 1, 2023After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
