Loading…
NOAA Climate.gov's May 2025 ENSO update reports the tropical Pacific is in ENSO-neutral conditions, expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Neutral is also the most likely outcome for fall and winter, with La Niña a close second.
A neutral ENSO state removes a strong climate driver, so weather-driven crop risk rests on regional patterns; the lack of a clear El Niño or La Niña signal leaves the seasonal outlook less certain for grain and oilseed supply.
climate.govEmily BeckerJun 1, 2025After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
