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NOAA's November 2024 ENSO update gives a 57% chance that La Niña develops soon, late in the season and likely weak. It notes that even weak events can shift temperature and precipitation patterns globally.
A weak La Niña could bring dryness risk to parts of South America and other growing regions, supporting soybean, corn and wheat prices modestly if forecasts firm up.
climate.govEmily BeckerNov 14, 2024After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
