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NIWA's December 2022 Island Climate Update reports a mature La Nina with a 75% chance of lasting through February 2023 and an 80% chance of easing toward neutral from March to May. It also notes rising odds of El Nino developing by winter 2023, above 40%.
Expected easing of La Nina and a possible shift toward El Nino would shape Pacific-rim and South American crop risks later in 2023, a factor for feed grain and oilseed sentiment.
niwa.co.nzDec 6, 2022After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
