A weekly Australian climate update reports little rain across most cropping regions for the week ending 18 October, with soil moisture declining and yield risk rising. It also notes global grain production conditions have deteriorated since the September ABARES forecast, with drought in parts of the Northern Hemisphere and expanding dryness in Argentina and Australia.
Deteriorating global crop conditions and lower-than-forecast supply reduce exportable grain and oilseed availability, supporting feed grain and meal prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.