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The WMO's seasonal outlook for July-September 2024 says El Niño sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific are returning to neutral after a below-normal spell, and are expected to cool toward La Niña by late 2024. Tropical Atlantic temperatures are forecast to stay above normal through the season.
The outlook also gives probabilistic temperature and rainfall forecasts for the period.
A shift toward La Niña later in 2024 would raise odds of favourable rains in parts of South America and weaker conditions in Asia and Australia, which can ease supply concerns for grains and oilseeds. The impact on prices is uncertain this far ahead.
wmo.intNov 28, 2023After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
