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Rainfall for the week ending 26 July was up to 50 mm in central-north Queensland but only 5 to 15 mm elsewhere. Soil moisture reserves are declining in parts of the cropping regions, especially New South Wales.
The Bureau of Meteorology's El Niño alert remains in place, and a positive IOD may develop.
Dry conditions in key winter cropping areas raise the risk of lower wheat and barley yields, which supports export prices. The effect is modest so far because most cropping areas have had some rain.
agriculture.gov.auJul 27, 2023After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
