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WeatherTiger's April outlook says the equatorial Pacific is currently neutral, with a strong warm anomaly off South America. Most dynamical models forecast a moderate El Niño within three months, but the author's own model expects a slow drift toward only weak El Niño through fall.
The disagreement over El Niño strength makes the seasonal weather risk uncertain, so the price effect on corn and soybeans is hard to size until forecasts converge.
weathertiger.comRyan TruchelutApr 6, 2017After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
