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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its 2018-19 winter temperature and precipitation outlook, presented as probabilities of below, near, or above average outcomes. The outlook depends on whether El Niño develops in time to influence winter conditions.
A developing El Niño typically brings drier conditions to Southeast Asia, Australia and parts of South America, which can cut crop yields and lift feed ingredient prices later in the season. The forecast is a routine seasonal outlook rather than a new supply event, so the immediate price impact is limited.
climate.govMike HalpertOct 22, 2018After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
