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Iowa State's outlook for winter 2019-2020 notes NOAA's CPC forecasts with neutral ENSO, giving equal chances for temperature in the Upper Midwest and a slight tilt toward wetter conditions in Iowa. The article says the winter storm track depends on the Arctic Oscillation, which cannot be forecast more than a few weeks ahead.
Uncertain winter weather in the Midwest adds modest risk to feedlot and transport costs and to next spring's planting outlook, but the signal is weak.
crops.extension.iastate.eduContent Author: Justin Glisan, Dennis TodeyNov 4, 2019After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 20 past neutral weather events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +3.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
