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DTN meteorologists give a regional breakdown of the 2024 US weather outlook after the rapid switch from El Niño to La Niña. They describe low confidence in the seasonal forecast, with the Pacific Northwest seeing a generally favorable outlook for winter and spring grains.
Low confidence in the spring forecast leaves room for weather-driven price volatility in US corn, soybean and wheat markets as planting approaches.
dtnpf.comJohn BaranickJan 11, 2024After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
