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ANZ and Rabobank expect Australian fertilizer costs to fall in 2023 after prices roughly halved from their spike. Rabobank forecasts Australian farmers will increase urea use about 4%, potash 3% and phosphate 2%, though still below long-term averages.
Analysts flag El Niño and drier conditions as risks for the season.
Higher planned fertilizer use supports Australian crop output and grain availability, while El Niño risk could cut yields. Lower input costs help farm margins but have limited direct effect on feed commodity prices.
farmweekly.com.auJasmine PeartJun 12, 2023After 37 past weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (73% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +5.6% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
