
Continuous rain across the WA wheatbelt in September and October produced the slowest start to CBH grain deliveries in six years. CBH nonetheless raised its crop estimate by about two million tonnes, to 11-12 million tonnes.
Harvest delays slow near-term physical supply, but the higher crop estimate offsets some of the shortfall, leaving the net price effect small.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.